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sexta-feira, novembro 05, 2004

How To Lose An Election (for english click post title)

7 Novembro - descobri algumas gralhas e erros que mudavam ou tiravam o sentido de algumas frases. estão corrigidos espero que todos.
Tal como com Gore, Kerry perdeu as eleições porque não se impôs contra o perfil de Bush. Bush (ou grupos em seu nome) conseguiu com mentiras manchar aquilo que à partida seria uma qualidade contrastante favorável a Kerry – o serviço militar de ambos.

Para mais Kerry tentou esconder ou não salientou as suas próprias qualidades de liderança:
MSNBC - Kerry by the Book: "It's one of John Kerry's biggest achievements in the Senate: a groundbreaking investigation into money laundering, drug dealers, terrorists and secret nukes. Yet voters have rarely heard of the senator's dogged inquiries into the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI). Why? Because some of Kerry's leading campaign strategists believed it was too difficult for voters to digest. 'You can't talk about that because people think you're talking about the BBC,' Bob Shrum, Kerry's top adviser, told one senior staffer. 'Why were you investigating British TV?'"
Não sou daqueles que pensa que os americanos são estúpidos mas pelos vistos o senhor Shrum não estava certo que os eleitores conseguissem distinguir a BBC do BCCI.

Kerry também se manteve distante dos abusos de Guantanamo Bay. Não conseguiu fazer passar a mensagem da gestão económica ruinosa de Bush, dos cortes nos impostos dos ricos, dos escândalos económicos durante o seu mandato envolvendo personalidades próximas da sua administração.

As questões "morais", Kerry evitou discuti-las:
The Washington Monthly – SLOW DOWN THERE: "(Did you hear once during this election season that abortion rates have risen under W. after they fell dramatically during Clinton's eight years in office?)";
concedendo a vantagem a Bush de não explicar as suas próprias opiniões sem oposição, como definir implicitamente a posição de Kerry.

Esta demissão de Kerry pode ter ainda maiores consequências do que a sua derrota na corrida presidencial.
MSNBC - Culture Wars: Winning the 'Values' Vote: "In eight states, including Ohio, Michigan and Utah, the measures went even further. They curtailed rights granted under civil unions and domestic partnerships, which could affect unmarried straight couples, too - a position to the right of President Bush and other Republicans. Ohio's Republican governor opposed his state's initiative. It still passed with 62 percent of the vote."
Ou seja, num dos estados-chave destas eleições (Ohio), uma lei regressiva que podia afectar os direitos já adquiridos por casais (tanto hetero como homossexuais) foi a votos com o governador republicano a fazer campanha contra e Kerry não soube utilizar isto em sua vantagem.

Estes dois artigos explicam um pouco os motivos por detrás desta viragem à direita e o modo com a discussão à volta dos casamentos gay mobilizou a direita religiosa, invertendo a tendência geralmente aceite de que uma redução da abstenção beneficiaria a esquerda.
The Washington Monthly - MOST IMPORTANT EVENT...RECONSIDERED...: "the Massachusett's Supreme Court's decision to legalize gay marriage. The result was nearly a dozen initiatives across the country to ban gay marriage and a perfect wedge issue for Republicans."
The Washington Monthly – SLOW DOWN THERE:


How To Lose An Election

As Gore, Kerry lost the election because he could not stand against the Bush profile. Bush (or groups in his name) could stain with lies what would be a critical and contrasting quality favourable to Kerry – their military service.

Besides failing in imposing his military curriculum, Kerry strangely tried to hide, or at least did not brought to the campaign front, his own leadership abilities:
MSNBC - Kerry by the Book: "It's one of John Kerry's biggest achievements in the Senate: a groundbreaking investigation into money laundering, drug dealers, terrorists and secret nukes. Yet voters have rarely heard of the senator's dogged inquiries into the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI). Why? Because some of Kerry's leading campaign strategists believed it was too difficult for voters to digest. 'You can't talk about that because people think you're talking about the BBC,' Bob Shrum, Kerry's top adviser, told one senior staffer. 'Why were you investigating British TV?'"
I am not one of those that think that Americans are stupid but apparently Mr. Shrum was not that positive.

Kerry also kept his distance to the human rights abuses of Guantanamo Bay. He did not underline the Bush’s disastrous economical management, the outrageuous tax cuts for the richer or the financial scandals involving personalities active in his administration.

But mainly, Kerry avoided the "moral values"
The Washington Monthly – SLOW DOWN THERE: "(Did you hear once during this election season that abortion rates have risen under W. after they fell dramatically during Clinton's eight years in office?)";
giving Bush the advantage of explaining his positions without opposition and defining Kerry’s position by default.

This apathy from Kerry can even have further consequences than his own loss of the presidential election. .
MSNBC - Culture Wars: Winning the 'Values' Vote: "In eight states, including Ohio, Michigan and Utah, the measures went even further. They curtailed rights granted under civil unions and domestic partnerships, which could affect unmarried straight couples, too - a position to the right of President Bush and other Republicans. Ohio's Republican governor opposed his state's initiative. It still passed with 62 percent of the vote."
So in one of the key states of this election, a regressive law that could cancel acquired rights for unmarried couples (hetero or homosexuals) was being voted, with the republican governor campaigning against it, and Kerry was unable to use this to his own advantage.

These two articles explain a bit the reasons behind this turn to the right and the way the discussion around the gay marriages mobilised the religious right, inverting the tendency generally accepted that a high turn-out would benefit the left.
The Washington Monthly - MOST IMPORTANT EVENT...RECONSIDERED...: "the Massachusett's Supreme Court's decision to legalize gay marriage. The result was nearly a dozen initiatives across the country to ban gay marriage and a perfect wedge issue for Republicans."
The Washington Monthly – SLOW DOWN THERE:

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